Polymarket Accused of Double-Counting Trading Volume

Prediction market platform Polymarket is facing criticism after a new independent audit suggested that the company may have inflated its reported trading volume. The allegations focus on a methodological issue: counting both the maker and taker side of each trade as separate volume entries, effectively doubling the transaction numbers.

The accusations do not suggest fraud or user losses, but they raise questions about how trading metrics in the prediction-market space should be calculated and communicated.

How the Alleged Double-Counting Happened

The audit highlights a structural detail of Polymarket’s automated market-maker system. Each trade interacts with the liquidity pool, generating two mirrored entries: one for the liquidity provider side and one for the trader side. Some analytics dashboards reportedly counted both as unique volume events.

Why Accurate Volume Reporting Matters

Volume is a key benchmarking metric across prediction markets and crypto trading platforms. It affects how users perceive platform activity, liquidity strength, pricing efficiency, and overall reliability.

Inflated numbers may:

• distort market-share comparisons
• mislead new traders about real liquidity
• influence media or institutional sentiment
• create false impressions of adoption growth

For a sector positioning itself as a data-driven alternative to traditional betting, accurate reporting is critical.

Polymarket Responds to the Claims

Polymarket has not denied that its reported figures include both sides of a transaction, but the company argues that this approach is consistent with how decentralized exchanges often track activity.

Early comments from platform representatives indicated that volume calculations vary widely across the industry and no universally accepted standard exists for prediction-market AMMs.

Still, the platform acknowledged the need for clearer disclosures and is reportedly reviewing how metrics are displayed on both internal dashboards and third-party trackers.

Impact on Users and the Broader Prediction Market Sector

The allegations do not impact user balances, open positions, or market outcomes. However, the incident has sparked a broader discussion around transparency in crypto analytics.

Industry analysts warn that inconsistent reporting standards can undermine confidence, especially as prediction markets gain traction ahead of major global elections and large-scale events.

Several competing platforms have already issued statements clarifying how they calculate trading volume, suggesting the sector may move toward more uniform reporting in 2025.

What Comes Next for Polymarket

Polymarket is expected to update its documentation and potentially adjust how volume is communicated publicly. The company continues to operate normally, and no regulatory actions have been announced.

The audit has, however, triggered a wave of scrutiny. As prediction markets grow in popularity, accurate and standardized reporting may become a regulatory expectation rather than a best practice.